cabdriver reidar: Climate change may get us into hot political waters

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Climate change may get us into hot political waters

Michael Le Page, features editor

"THE most important obstacle to meaningful action on climate change is the fact that people have not come to accept how serious it is," argues Andrew Guzman, professor of law at the University of California, Berkeley, in Overheated.

To impress upon us the severity of the situation, Guzman describes many of the fragile geopolitical situations that will be exacerbated by climate change in this ambitious book. Take Pakistan, which depends almost entirely on the Indus river for its water. Most of the river's water is meltwater from snow and glaciers in the Himalayas. Climate change is likely to bring more flooding in the short term, as glaciers melt. But flow will decline in the long term, as shrunken glaciers contribute less during the dry season.

This will heighten already fraught relations with its neighbour India, which controls the source of the river. India has used this power as a weapon already and, as ever more strain is put on the water supply, tensions over the river could lead to war.

There are some laborious analogies, and perhaps Overheated would have been better if it focused on the impacts of climate change rather than trying to summarise the basics as well. Overall, though, Guzman does a good job of conveying just how bad even a 2 ?C rise could be, from triggering wars to causing mass migration, famine and disease. No one can predict the future, but by exploring historical catastrophes, Guzman opens your eyes to what it might hold.

But will convincing people it is serious really lead to action? I'm dubious about Guzman's premise. In our political system, making radical changes now to avoid problems tomorrow is virtually impossible, and matters aren't helped by the immense clout of fossil fuel-related industries.